Model the future before you invest in it.
F-Scenario turns a real asset's assumptions into scenarios, financial outcomes and a clear decision view, so investment teams see what could happen before they commit capital.
Example asset and values are illustrative.
One forecast hides the range of outcomes.
Most investment cases are built around a single set of assumptions. Energy prices, capital cost, production and financing will not follow that single path. A decision that looks safe on one line can look different once the plausible range is visible.
Same project, same model. Switch the view and nothing about the asset changes. Only the honesty of the picture does.
The question shifts. From “what is the IRR?” to “under which conditions does this investment still work?”
Example model with illustrative assumptions. Not market data.
From assumptions to a decision you can explain.
Every F-Scenario analysis follows the same chain. Each step keeps its inputs visible, so a reviewer can trace any outcome back to the assumption that drives it.
Assumptions
CAPEX, prices, production, operating cost, financing, policy.
Scenarios
Base, upside and downside sets built from explicit ranges.
Outcomes
Cash flow, IRR, NPV, payback and debt cover per scenario.
Risk
Sensitivity shows which assumption moves the result most.
Comparison
Scenarios side by side against the same decision criteria.
Decision
A conditional verdict, with the conditions stated.
Change an assumption. Watch the future branch.
Pick an asset, move the assumptions, and follow the effect through cash flow, sensitivity and scenario comparison to a decision view.
The context around the model, with its sources attached.
Published indicators, anchored to the asset they affect. Each one carries its source, date, unit and verification status, and our reading of what it means for a scenario. A dated snapshot, not a live feed.
Three asset classes. One decision method.
Energy is the application domain. Scenario modelling is the mechanism. The value is a better-founded investment decision.
Five layers between a physical asset and a decision.
Hover or tap any element to trace what it depends on and what it affects. The orange path is the example solar case.
The same reasoning, for other decisions under uncertainty.
Example decision contexts, not separate product modules. Each follows the chain from assumptions to a conditional decision.
More capital, more volatility, more decisions with a deadline.
Capacity is growing fast, prices swing harder, and subsidy windows set the calendar. Each of these widens the range a single forecast cannot show.
Notes on energy investment under uncertainty.
Market analysis, scenario notes and decision research. Every note lists its sources.
A project-finance workspace built around the decision.
F-Scenario guides an investment case from setup to a committee-style readout in one workflow: scenario setup, core analysis, risk, sensitivity, decision, comparison and export.
Eight steps, one connected case.
Select a step to see what goes in, what happens and what comes out. The view below is a concept of the early-access workspace with illustrative values.
WorkspaceData and assumptions flow one way. Questions flow back.
Static forecast and scenario-based decision view.
Spreadsheets, BI dashboards and advisory reports all have a place. The difference here is the question each view is built to answer.
Static forecast
- One set of assumptions produces one IRR.
- Sensitivity is often a separate tab, run by hand.
- Changing a scenario means copying the model.
- The logic behind a conclusion lives in the analyst's head.
Scenario-based decision view
- Base, upside and downside are built from stated ranges.
- Drivers are ranked by how much they move the outcome.
- Scenarios are saved, compared and rerun as snapshots.
- The verdict lists the conditions under which it holds.
Nine questions behind every investment decision.
Solar, wind and greenhouse energy decisions.
Each asset class has its own variables and its own failure modes. The decision method stays the same.
Where the money and the energy meet.
Select an element to see the variables it adds to an investment case and which decision model it feeds.
Follow uncertainty through the model.
Uncertainty enters with the assumptions, spreads through the model, branches into scenarios and is finally made explicit in the decision. Seven steps, each with a defined output.
Conceptual diagram: the width of the band represents the range of plausible outcomes at each step. Not to scale.
Indicators with their provenance attached.
Selected, published figures for energy-transition investment. Every number shows its source, publication date, unit and verification status. This V1 is a dated snapshot assembled on 6 October 2026. Nothing on this page updates automatically yet.
An indicator matters when it changes an assumption.
Each card below follows the same chain: the published figure, its source, our reading of what it implies for a scenario, and why it matters for the decision.
Example projects, ready to model.
Fictional projects that show how an opportunity moves from description to scenario model. Open one to load its assumptions into the decision branch.
Built to take live data later, without changing the page.
Every indicator follows one record format. Today the records are maintained by hand. The same format can be filled by scheduled API adapters once real feeds are connected and reviewed.
Sources
Publisher APIs and releases such as ENTSO-E, Eurostat, IRENA, IEA, RVO.
Ingestion
Scheduled adapters fetch, normalise units and stamp retrieval time.
Review
Each figure is checked and tagged verified or secondary before use.
Registry
Indicator records with source, dates, unit and status (this page).
Display
Cards, ticker and insights read only from the registry.
Analysis for decisions under uncertainty.
Market notes, scenario notes and project analysis on energy-transition investment. Every note lists its sources. Notes are written and reviewed by the team; nothing here is generated or published automatically.
Each marker opens the note behind it. Illustration; figures are sourced in each note.
A decision-intelligence company inside F Holding.
F-Scenario builds scenario modelling and investment decision support. Its strategic focus is the energy transition: renewable generation and the energy systems of controlled-environment agriculture.
Commercial judgement and technical depth, in one team.
F-Scenario combines an understanding of markets and investment decisions with the technology to model them.
Part of F Holding
Evidence status is part of the product.
A model is only as useful as the honesty of its inputs. We label every claim, on this site and in our analysis, with how well it is supported.
Checked against the publisher or owner of the information.
Reported by a third party. Used with that label, and checked before relied on.
An example built to show how the method works. Never presented as data.
A capability or result that exists but is still being tested.
Something we believe and are testing. Not stated as fact.
Early access, built in the open.
The workspace is in active development and features may change. We work with a small number of early users and treat their feedback as input to the product.
Show the range, not a number.
A decision deserves the plausible spread of outcomes and the drivers behind it.
Keep every step traceable.
Any output should lead back to the assumption and the source it rests on.
Support decisions; don't make them.
F-Scenario informs the people accountable for capital. It does not replace their judgement or their advisers.
Bring us a decision you are working on.
Tell us about the investment you are evaluating. We will reply about early access and whether F-Scenario fits the case.
Updates as you fill in the form. Nothing is sent or stored.
- 1 · Reply
- We confirm whether the case fits the current workspace.
- 2 · Walkthrough
- A short session on your decision, its variables and the scenarios that matter.
- 3 · Access
- Early access where the fit is clear. Features may change during this phase.